The incomparable Nate Silver analyzes the politics behind the measure here. He optimistically (and simultaneously, pessimistically) points out:
Democrats may take some solace in the fact that, when gay marriage billsBut there is one thing that Nate did not take into account that may work to our advantage.
were approved by legislatures in states like Maine and Vermont, they tended to
pass with slightly more votes than anticipated. Still, based on the most
recently available information, I would guess that their odds of securing 32
votes are not better than about one in three.
The New York GOP's has told their membership that they will not attempt to whip them, and they can vote with their conscience.
That may well make all the difference in the world.