Predictions by State for Marriage Equality

Nate Silver, an analyst who has correctly predicted outcomes of many different elections, has looked at data including whether a state has previously passed a ban on gay marriage, the importance of religion to local voters based on a Gallup survey, and how many white evangelicals live in a particular state. Based on that, he created a model to predict when voters in each state would be likely to vote down a ban on gay marriage.

Here's a run down by state of when marriage equality is expected to come:

2009
Vermont (already equal as of April 7, 2009)
New Hampshire
Massachusetts (already equal as of May 17, 2004)
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut (already equal as of October 10, 2008)
Nevada*
Washington
Alaska*
New York
Oregon*

2010
California*
Hawaii
Montana*
New Jersey
Colorado*

2011
Wyoming
Delaware
Idaho*
Arizona*

2012
Wisconsin*
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Illinois

2013
Michigan*
Minnesota
Iowa (Equal as of April 27, 2009)
Ohio*
Utah*
Florida*

2014
New Mexico
North Dakota*
Nebraska*
South Dakota*

2015
Indiana
Virginia*
West Virginia
Kansas*

2016
Missouri*

2018
Texas*

2019
North Carolina
Louisiana*
Georgia*

2020
Kentucky*

2021
South Carolina*
Oklahoma*

2022
Tennessee*
Arkansas*

2023
Alabama*

2024
Mississippi*

Asterisks indicate states which had previously passed amendments to ban gay marriage.